Navigating Capital Project Uncertainty in 2025: Insights from the Risky Planner Podcast
In the latest episode of the Risky Planner podcast, hosts Nate Habermeyer and Albert Brier tackle one of the most pressing challenges facing capital projects in 2025: uncertainty. As global economic conditions fluctuate with unpredictable tariffs, inflation concerns, and supply chain disruptions, project managers and executives are struggling to make confident investment decisions.
The Reality of Economic Uncertainty
The episode begins with a stark acknowledgment of today’s economic landscape. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent statements highlight that “tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected” with economic effects including “higher inflation and slower growth.” These conditions point toward potential stagflation—a dangerous combination of stagnant economic growth coupled with rising prices.
As Albert explains through his experience with a major oil company, capital investment decisions become increasingly complex in uncertain times. He shares a compelling story about a high-NPV extraction facility project in northern Alberta that was unexpectedly shelved despite having cleared all approval stages. The aftermath included not just lost opportunity but significant sunk costs in infrastructure, equipment, and maintaining a team to “babysit the remnants” of the project.
The Ripple Effects of Delayed Decisions
The hosts explore how pausing capital expenditures creates cascading consequences beyond simple scheduling delays. When projects are put on hold:
- Manufacturing agreements may be lost, requiring new negotiations at higher prices
- Specialized personnel may be idled, creating unexpected operational expenses
- Schedule extensions become difficult to quantify as they’re inserted mid-project
- Cross-border procurement becomes increasingly complex with shifting tariff policies
According to a recent report, 76% of US manufacturers now cite uncertainty as their top business challenge in 2025, reflecting widespread concern across industries.
Strategies for Project Leaders
Rather than suggesting companies halt all investment activities, the hosts advocate for a more nuanced approach that includes:
- Widening uncertainty bands in estimates: As Albert recommends, “Make those uncertainty bars even fatter” to account for the increased variability in costs and schedules.
- Adjusting risk tolerance at the organizational level: Parent companies should clearly communicate risk appetite to project teams, setting guardrails for what types of risks they’re willing to accept.
- Developing “roadblock mitigation strategies”: Referencing the PMI’s Pulse of the Profession report, the hosts discuss how high-performing teams demonstrate “business acumen” by identifying obstacles they cannot solve themselves and escalating appropriately.
- Focusing on locally sourced projects: In an environment where global trade faces increasing barriers, projects with local inputs, talent, and markets may present lower risk profiles.
Making Investment Decisions Despite Uncertainty
The podcast concludes with pragmatic advice for project executives: don’t let uncertainty paralyze all investment. While some organizations may have the luxury to pause and wait out turbulent conditions, others need to move forward strategically.
“If you have something that is such a massive slam dunk that it would be foolish to pass up under almost any circumstances, then now is the time to do it,” Albert advises, while emphasizing the importance of accounting for heightened uncertainty in all projections.
For project managers navigating these challenging waters, the Risky Planner podcast offers valuable perspective on maintaining forward momentum while acknowledging the realities of our uncertain economic environment.
The complete episode is available wherever you get your podcasts.
Also, check out our whitepaper on quantifying and visualizing risk: www.dokainish.com/projectrisk
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About Dokainish & Company
The capital project landscape is impacted with billions of dollars lost from cost overruns. Dokainish & Company stands out with a track record of building award-winning PMOs and lowering cost overages up to 200% on projects in energy, infrastructure, mining, construction, defense, and more. We are the category leaders in project controls and technology consulting. We are ISO 9001:2015 certified, minority owned, and maintain a 97% rate of client retention. We provide integrated project controls, project management, and change management services. Learn more at dokainish.com and follow @Dokainish&Company.
